Bill Benter
A third positive attribute of a computerized handicapping system is its consistency. Handicapping races manually is an extremely taxing undertaking. A computer will effortlessly handicap races with the same level of care day. In this exclusive video interview, Bill Benter, who is reputed to be the most successful gambler of all time, discusses his close working relationship with s.
Overview
The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code
Bill Benter did the impossible: He wrote an algorithm that couldn’t lose at the track. Close to a billion dollars later, he tells his system.
This book examines the elements necessary for a practical and successful computerized horse race handicapping and wagering system. Data requirements, handicapping model development, wagering strategy, and feasibility are addressed. A logit-based technique and a corresponding heuristic measure of improvement are described for combining a fundamental handicapping model with the public's implied probability estimates. The author reports significant positive results in five years of actual implementation of such a system. This result can be interpreted as evidence of inefficiency in pari-mutuel racetrack wagering. This paper aims to emphasize those aspects of computer handicapping which the author has found most important in practical application of such a system.
Also included the Bill Benter 'What Are My Odds?' Presentation at ICCM in 2004.
In today’s article I want to share a couple of betting articles I feel are of note and details on a recommended tipping service bang in form.
First of all, I wanted to share a link to this long but fascinating article on Bill Benter, titled ‘The Gambler Who Cracked The Horse Racing Code‘, as published by Bloomberg Businessweek.
Sharing his story for the first time ever, in this article you can get the full scoop on just why Bill is such a legend in betting circles, his ups and downs and just how he made his betting pay in the end.
Despite the headline behind this story being about the man ‘who cracked the horse racing code’ – through the article it’s clear how it wasn’t all plain sailing for Bill and his approach finally bore fruit after several years of trial and error.
His winning strategy was like almost all others, one based on ‘value betting‘ whereby he was able to successfully identify bets with a higher chance of winning then the odds available. Here is how the article explained it:
“[Bill had] A private system of odds that was slightly more accurate than the public odds. To simplify, imagine that the gambling public can bet on a given horse at a payout of 4 to 1. Benter’s model might show that the horse is more likely to win than those odds suggest—say, a chance of one in three. That means Benter can put less at risk and get the same return; a seemingly small edge can turn into a big profit.
High Volume & Patience
Now having an edge is one thing – making it pay on a regular basis is another as Bill knew he had to churn through enough bets on a daily basis to eliminate randomness as “The impact of bad luck can be diminished by betting thousands and thousands of times”
His ability therefore to back hundreds, if not thousands of bets in Hong Kong every day ensured this regular profit.
Now as fascinating and inspiring as Bill’s story undoubtedly is, it does raise the question as to exactly how we as punters can apply it to our own betting. Whilst none of us are likely to have the time or ability to place hundreds of bets every day as he did, there are some clear qualities that stand out, including that of patience.
His patience came more in the form of the time it took to build his profitable model in the first place, yet he clearly knew that betting for profit was about the long haul and not the short-term when it came to results.
And that ties into another article I wanted to highlight for you on the theme of patience and why its so important, especially as I feel that it is a lack of this quality which holds so many punters back with their betting.Click here to read it.
Like it or not – patience is fundamental whatever way you are attempting to make money – be it the stock market, bitcoin or anything else for that matter.
Punters without patience and those making knee-jerk decisions based on short-term form are ultimately those that only lose out – and that is something I wanted to help tackle and address through this article.
Don’t Go Overboard on Short-Term Form
The problems with a lack of patience jumped out at me again when I was putting the finishing touches to a new tipster review to be released on Sunday to SBC members.
Although this service has an exceptional record having made 400.4 points profit @ 17.76% ROI from 844 bets, it like any service does suffer from losing periods from time to time.
And any tipster who claims to never lose or suffer losing runs is telling you what you want to hear – not what is true.
To highlight this, allow me to showcase what happened if following during 2019, where if you had started on the 1st January 2019, come the end of August 2019, you would have been better off to the tune of 276.52 points @ 35.33% ROI from 285 bets advised. Each month returned a profit.
As you can imagine at that time such form ensured this was a very popular service, yet as night follows day, a losing run was due and in September and October the service lost a combined 67.79 points.
Anyone who was a member during these 2 months might well have wondered what all the fuss is about – and indeed the service in question did receive a few emails querying this point during this period.
Yet, ultimately, If you were to judge the service on just September and October alone and the 103 bets advised during this period, you would be selling yourself short.
Which is exactly why Bill’s method was based on betting high volume to eliminate bad luck or bad runs of form just like this.
With November and December back in profit with a further 38.68 points made, over the full year in 2019 the service actually made a 247.71 point profit @ 19.42% ROI from 453 bets. Very similar to the long-term ROI figure achieved of 17.76%
If this tipster interests you, then I would be happy to share details on it – drop me an email and I will send on information.
Guided By The Goal of Long-Term Profits
Whether it be the tipsters we review in each SBC Magazine, our Tipster Profit Reports or the Free Tipsters available to all SBC members, the fundamentals of being patient when betting ring true:
No-one can ever guarantee a profit over a small sequence of bets.
Bill Benter knew this – which is why he churned through so many bets everyday. He knew that taking 4/1 about a 3/1 chance would make him a profit long-term. It might take 20, 30, 50 even 100+ bets for this to come through over short-term patterns, but judged on significant data-sets, the edge would materialise.
And it is this point that guides us in our work exploring and recommending tipsters here at SBC.
Long-term profits are what matter and the ability to understand losses and place them in context is equally important. In fact, I would say its not just important, but absolutely crucial to anyone who wants to bet seriously for profit.
I hope you find this email useful and the various articles and links of note. If so, you might like to consider a Smart Betting Club membership and see how we can help you, like thousands of others before you improve your betting.
Until then, be lucky!
Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping
If you have any questions on this article or a Smart Betting Club membership in general, you can contact me directly via pete@smartbettingclub.com. I respond to all emails as quickly as I can!